Embarrassed by Ukraine, Russia Turns to Space to Even the Odds Against US
Since 2022, I’ve been extremely critical of the Russian military circus taking place in Ukraine — specifically, the archaic way Russia fights its wars.
And while Russia has incrementally improved on the Ukrainian battlefield, there is one theater of war where they are particularly advanced: Space.
To underestimate Russia here would be a grave mistake — after all, we’re talking about the people who put both the first satellite and the first human in space.
Also, the infrastructure for Russia’s space industrial base is largely intact; albeit, starting to suffer from a lack of Western tech thanks to sanctions.
Still, that hasn’t stopped Russia from weaponizing space.
Today, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed that Russia launched a satellite last week into low Earth orbit that the Pentagon believes to be a counter-space weapon — presumably capable of attacking other satellites.
What’s more, Russia deployed this new counter-space weapon into the same orbit as a US government satellite.
But this isn’t the first time Russia has launched a payload like this.
In 2019, Russia launched an “inspector” satellite, Kosmos 2542, from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, about 800 km north of Moscow.
After launch, Kosmos 2542 maintained an orbit that brought it close to a known American spy satellite every 11 to 12 days. After a few months, Kosmos 2542 performed a series of maneuvers to match the orbital period, position, and timing of the US satellite.
Which satellite?
USA 245, a KH-11 satellite named “Keyhole,” is a type of reconnaissance satellite launched by the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). USA 245 currently orbits between 171 and 630 miles high in low Earth orbit.
Even if Russian inspector satellites don’t contain a projectile weapon, inspector satellites can still reveal exactly what kinds of targets on Earth are being surveilled by the American spy satellite — if they get close enough.
But these inspector satellites could include a spacecraft-killing capability: A report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) expressed concern that foreign inspector satellites could include payloads such as kinetic kill vehicles, radiofrequency jammers, lasers, chemical sprayers, high-power microwaves, and robotic mechanisms.
Russia followed up its 2019 inspector launch with Kosmos 2543, which demonstrated that it’s capable of approaching another satellite in orbit and shooting it down.
The actual weapon worked sort of like a Russian nesting doll: Kosmos 2543 first deployed a sub-satellite that then launched a projectile at the relative speed of 250 kilometers per hour.
Other space-based antisatellite (ASAT) weapons don’t need to shoot anything at all — they simply maneuver up to the enemy satellite, extend a little grippy articulating arm, and drag the victim satellite out of its orbit.
Back to today’s news…
When asked if the Russian counter-space weapon posed a threat to the US satellite, Ryder responded: “Well, it’s a counter-space weapon in the same orbit as a US government satellite.”
I don’t know if the press corps journalist just asked a dumb question, or what, but I love Ryder’s response — I imagine he said it in as flat a tone as possible.
As in, “Duh, it’s a Russian space weapon in the same orbit as one of our birds. It’s not up there to bring us flowers, and the Russians don’t launch stuff to space for funsies…”
So, what does this mean?
First, this is clearly an ongoing Russian escalation dating back to before the current war in Ukraine. So, any talk that this is a response to US support of Ukraine is nonsense.
Second, there are serious implications for what this means in any future shooting war between Russia and NATO.
The US is heavily reliant on its space-based assets for command and control, military communications, and all manner of intelligence gathering.
If Russia starts knocking out US satellites, either with ASAT weapons or the supposed nuclear-based weapon they deployed several months ago, the US military will be fighting blind and deaf.
Space is the ultimate high ground. The great powers of the 20th Century realized this fact and deployed constellations of communications and spy satellites.
Unfortunately, the US has become increasingly reliant on these space assets — so much so that any attack against them would all but cripple US offensive combat power.
This is one of the reasons why the US recognized the need for a dedicated branch of the military whose sole responsibility was the space domain — thus, the Space Force was born.
Russia has even stated that they’re pulling out of the International Space Station.
Specifically, Roscosmos chief Yury Borisov told Russian President Vladimir Putin that “the decision to leave the ISS station after 2024 has been made.” To which, Putin replied, “Good.”
The ISS is designed in such a way that the partner nations are dependent on one another. For instance, the US provides the power and Russia provides propulsion.
If Russia leaves, the US will have to approach other partner nations like Canada or Japan for potential assistance with propulsion — keeping the station from falling out of the sky.
Russia has also recently politicized the ISS — Russian cosmonauts posing with pro-separatists, Donetsk People’s Republic, and Luhansk People’s Republic flags for photos and the like.
There’s also the troubling sabotage that took place in 2018 where a hole was drilled in an attached Soyuz capsule.
This is likely a case of Russia knowing that in any potential war with NATO, they would be at a huge conventional disadvantage. Attacking US space assets is a way to ‘level the playing field’ and goes in line with Putin’s philosophy of “escalate to de-escalate.”
In other words, let’s say Putin invades Latvia, NATO responds, and Putin tries to punch the US in the nose so hard that we come to the negotiating table.
Of course, I’m just making an educated guess here. Who knows what actually goes on in the mind of a madman…
But this scenario is consistent with Putin’s past actions, as well as publicly available, Kremlin planning documents.
Space is also a source of national pride for Russia and in light of their doomed adventurism in Ukraine, they still need to show the world that they’re more than capable in the highly complex space environment.
So… Whatever Russia’s mystery satellite is, it’s nothing good. As for what the Russians are saying, they are dismissing US claims as “fake news.” Because of course, they are…
The good news here is that US tracking technology is good enough to have determined that this is a weapon — catching Russia with their pants down, so to speak.
In situations like this, the US made the call that it is better to reveal to the world that we know it’s a weapon, possibly showing our technological capability, in the interest of preventing Russia’s reckless space behavior.
Glory to Ukraine
Слава Україні