Ukraine to Get the JASSM Long-Range Cruise Missile
Ukraine’s new F-16s are about to get some new ‘boom boom’ that will allow the AFU to put warheads on foreheads from 370 km away.
The US seems to worry less about escalation these days – and that’s a good thing.
Since US President Joe Biden stepped down from seeking reelection in November, we’ve seen a gradual easing of US policy toward escalation.
I mention this because for the past two years, we’ve watched the US tiptoe right up to its self-imposed red line, and then cross it multiple times, while some in the administration fret about Russian retaliation.
It’s almost as if Uncle Joe, freed from the stress and worry of campaigning, has said, (and I’m paraphrasing): “F*ck it. Let’s quit holding Ukraine back and see what they can do.”
This is likely because the level of future US support for Ukraine becomes less certain if President Trump wins the election.
So, might as well “get it now while the gettin’ is good” – so to speak.
To be sure, there are still many restrictions in place – but things have grown decidedly more relaxed in recent months starting with the green light to hit Russian targets (with US weapons) congregating across the Ukrainian border near Kharkiv.
Next, Ukraine commenced a ground assault inside Russia using US weapon systems like the Bradley and Stryker, among other NATO equipment from allies like Germany, with nary a word [publicly] from the US.
And now, my sources in the US Air Force are telling me that the US is working toward providing Ukraine with the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, or JASSM, as soon as this fall.
So, what is the JASSM, how might Ukraine leverage it, and what is the US really worried about when Ukraine uses this missile? Hint: It’s not escalation.
The AGM-158 JASSM (I’ve heard it pronounced as “Jazz-M” during my time in the USAF) is a large, stealthy, long-range cruise missile with a 1,000-pound (450 kg) armor-piercing warhead.
It’s worth noting that the US has only shared this technology with a handful of close ally nations – Poland, Australia, and Finland have the weapon, while Japan and the Netherlands signed agreements to buy the missiles in July with delivery expected in the coming years.
The AGM-158B JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range), entered service in 2014, which allows the US to reach targets more than 500 miles away.
Ukraine will likely be receiving the baseline version.
So, how can it fly so far?
Unlike typical cruise missiles, which fly close to the ground to avoid detection, the JASSM's stealthy design and stealth coating allow it to fly at higher altitudes to achieve long flight ranges without using up energy maneuvering around terrain obstacles.
It’s also jam-resistant and uses inertial navigation with global positioning system updates. An imaging infrared seeker provides target recognition and terminal homing.
The warhead itself is a WDU-42/B 1,000 lb (450 kg) penetrator. The JASSM is installed with a hard target smart fuse (HTSF), which differentiates between the earth, concrete, rock, and air.
After a millisecond of calculation, the device detonates a new formulation of explosive [checks notes to make sure I’m not divulging classified info here] called AFX-757.
This new formulation boasts higher blast characteristics, is less sensitive to many physical effects that can trigger unwanted explosions, and is easier to process than current explosive fills like Tritonal and PBXN-109.
This cruise missile is so new, the US has only used it 19 times in the Syrian Civil War battlespace.
The missile manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, just opened a new munitions plant in Alabama that makes about 50 JASSMs a month to keep the US with a steady stockpile of about 7,500.
Any produced above and beyond 7,500 is approved for sale to a very small number of trusted allies.
The JASSM may be carried by a wide range of aircraft: the F-15E Eagle; F-16 Falcon; F/A-18 Hornet; F-35 Lightning; B-1B Lancer; B-2 Spirit; and B-52 Stratofortress are all intended to carry the weapon.
Interestingly, I had intended to write an article someday on the US “Rapid Dragon” system which uses the JASSM, and how this system could be a game changer in the Pacific.
Rapid Dragon is still on my ‘ideas list’ but I’ll give a quick briefing here because it’s relevant to our conversation:
Rapid Dragon, also known as Palletized JASSM, is a module with multiple JASSMs that can be airdropped out of the back of a C-130 or C-17 cargo plane as a low-cost method of rapidly providing a surge of mass-fired JASSMs.
This means any regular old US Air Force cargo plane (as an example, the US has 279 C-130s and 223 C-17s) can be turned into a warplane that can deploy dozens of JASSMs – without making any modifications to the existing aircraft.
Together with the JASSM-ER (extended range), this gives the USAF the capability of firing a massive swarm of JASSMs at enemy targets 500 nautical miles away. As you might imagine, something like this would be a nightmare for People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) military planners.
So, how might Ukraine use the JASSM?
The US currently plans to give Ukraine a number of JASSMs for use on their new F-16s. There’s also the possibility of retrofitting them to Ukraine’s Soviet-era aircraft – since much of that modification has already been done.
With a range of 370 km, Ukraine would be able to drop 1,000 warheads anywhere on Crimea from well behind the front lines, thus keeping its valuable F-16s safe from Russian air defenses.
What’s more, any Russian military asset in Russian-occupied Ukraine is well within JASSM’s range.
Depending on the US’ new outlook on escalation, Ukraine could strike a laundry list of targets in Russian territory – after all, the JASSM has 100 km further range than the Storm Shadow (250 km) and can strike almost 100 km further than the ATACMS (300 km).
And that’s just the baseline JASSMs.
If the US gives Ukraine the extended-range version, Moscow itself would be well within the range of JASSMs.
Although, admittedly, that might be one red line the US is unwilling to cross.
So, dropping 1,000 lb. bombs on Moscow aside, what is the US really concerned about when it comes to giving Ukraine the JASSMs?
Active duty airmen that I spoke with for this article say that there are still some things on JASSMs that they would prefer not to be reverse-engineered by Russia – or sold by Russia to the Chinese.
Using JASSMs against Russian targets presents the risk of enough of the missile left intact to analyze the stealth coating, guidance system, jam-resistant measures, and explosive composition.
In reality, this weapon being used in Syria against Islamic State actors likely already had Russians crawling all over it in an attempt to recover debris.
Besides, the fact that the US is willing to risk technical details of the system being examined by Russia means Lockheed Martin already has the next better iteration in the pipeline.
It’s also extremely unlikely that Russia has the advanced manufacturing capability to recreate portions of JASSMs for their own use.
Regardless, this trade-off in risk versus reward is apparently one that the Pentagon is comfortable with since this system will not only help Ukraine’s fight against the invaders but also weaken Russian military capability.
Ultimately, giving Ukraine JASSMs this fall is a welcome change by a White House that was once overly concerned about Russian escalation.
With Ukraine’s fighting spirit plus Western weapon systems, Ukraine has become a European military powerhouse – one that Putin likely regrets invading right about now.
Glory to Ukraine.
Glory to the heroes.
Слава Україні!
CORRECTION: “With a range of 370 km, Ukraine would be able to drop 1,000 ‘lb’ warheads” not 1,000 warheads lol
With Uncle Vlad losing over 1,000 recruits in the Donbas every day, mustn't there be some place not that far away where these recruits are gathered, for whatever reason, before going into rush-the-lines combat as well as supply depots either in the Donbas itself or in Belgorod that would present excellent targets so as to relieve the pressure on UKR defenders? That's question 1.
Question 2 is whether or not the JASSM's can take down the Kerch bridge.
Question 3 you answered already - would the Kremlin be within reach of the JASSM missile, especially if shot from somewhere over Kursk Oblast.
Thanks so much for this column, which does raise the spirits and make my day.