16,000 US Marines Could Be Stationed Permanently in Australia
16,000 US Marines Could Be Stationed Permanently in Australia
In my mind, there are only two things that keep China’s President Xi Jinping up at night: The US Marine Corps and Australia.
So, what happens when you put those two together?
Crickey!
China’s rapid military buildup has been alarming Western observers [at least] as far back as the Obama Administration.
The most recent examples of China’s aggressive actions can be found in the 2023 China Military Power Report that DOD delivered to Congress last year. In it, the DOD identified China as the department’s “top pacing challenge.”
By 2049—marking the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s rise to power—China’s leadership aims to pull off what they call "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
Think of it as a national makeover, but instead of Botox, it means ballistic missiles, military drills, and nuclear expansion.
As part of this rejuvenation, China has amped up military coercion in recent years.
Case in point? A sharp rise in unsafe intercepts of US, allied, and partner aircraft and vessels in international airspace and waterways across the Indo-Pacific. Between fall 2021 and fall 2023, the US counted over 180 risky maneuvers by China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Throw in incidents involving allies and partners, and that number jumps north of 300. Turns out, flying through international airspace near China is about as safe as jaywalking across the Autobahn.
And then there’s Taiwan. China’s pressure campaign against the self-governing island has intensified, including ballistic missile overflights, swarms of Chinese jets intruding into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, and large-scale simulated blockade exercises.
The PLA even staged a mock firepower strike shortly after a US congressional delegation had the audacity to drop by Taipei.
Subtle diplomacy? Not exactly.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s bromance with Vladimir Putin has only grown stronger. Xi’s vision of China’s ascent as a global power seems tethered to its alliance with Russia—two countries united by a shared skepticism of the West and, apparently, a fondness for grand authoritarian ceremonies.
As of May 2023, China had over 500 operational nuclear warheads—surpassing earlier projections. And it’s not just nukes; they’re cooking up some new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), some of which may not even need a nuclear warhead to pose a threat.
If developed and deployed, these ICBMs could carry out conventional strikes against targets in the continental US, Hawaii, and Alaska. Just in case you thought Alaska was safely tucked away from all the drama.
On the ground, the PLA is upgrading equipment and focusing on joint training, blending multiple branches into a more cohesive force.
But old habits die hard: the PLA is still a conscript army, with two waves of fresh recruits per year. Word is, they’re also working on integrating long-range fires into their doctrine, presumably for those moments when "subtle pressure" needs a little extra firepower.
Personally, I’m a little skeptical of China’s actual ground combat capability. I’ve written about this in the past, but a conscript army with no combat experience in recent history is likely to break once the bullets start flying.
Meanwhile, Australia played a very active role in Iraq and Afghanistan. For instance, the ADF participated in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and from 2006 until 2013, a battalion-sized Australian Army task force operated in Urozgan Province, Afghanistan.
These are just two examples – Australia had multiple other combat deployments to the region throughout the Global War on Terror.
Still… China’s endgame is clear: to reshape the world order in a way that favors its vision of power and influence. Whether this rejuvenation plan succeeds or not, one thing's for sure—China’s approach is less spa day, more cold-war flashbacks with a 21st-century twist.
Having said all of that, the US and its allies are not standing idly by.
Indeed, there is one nation to China’s south that may turn out to be Xi’s biggest nightmare: Yep… Australia.
The Australian Defense Force is small but mighty. What I mean to say is the ADF is technologically sophisticated but relatively small for its landmass with only 60,000 active duty personnel and 40,000 reserves.
In September 2021, Australia entered into the AUKUS trilateral security partnership with the United Kingdom and the US.
As part of this partnership, Australia will receive nuclear attack submarines to significantly improve the Royal Australian Navy’s capabilities.
The three AUKUS countries also agreed to collaborate on a range of military technologies.
And of course, Australia is a member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the US.
In 2022, the US and Australian governments funded major construction in the northern port of Darwin, at Larrakeyah Defense Precinct, and at Royal Australian Air Force Bases Darwin and Tindal for facilities that will be used by the US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.
This includes a $317 million upgrade of facilities and a new 820-foot-long wharf and fuel farm.
US Marines in Darwin
Darwin has been home to 100 US Marines, deployed there the past six months as part of a 2,200-strong rotational force that has been training in the Northern Territory during the southern hemisphere’s cooler months since 2012.
The bulk of the force is at Robertson Barracks, an Australian army post about 12 miles to the east.
The Marines share Larrakeyah with 600 Australian sailors assigned to naval base HMAS Coonawarra.
But now, the land down under might soon be hosting thousands more US Marines, with numbers potentially climbing to 16,000, according to a recent proposal from an Australian think tank.
It’s not quite a full invasion—more like an extended stay with some very well-armed guests.
Australia’s Institute of Public Affairs dropped the report this week, arguing that housing all those Marines could be the country’s “cheapest boost” to deterring regional adversaries like China.
Basically, instead of splurging on expensive new defense programs, just let the Marines crash on your couch.
I mean, personally, I wouldn’t invite the Marines into my house, or let them anywhere near my daughters for that matter… But hey, a 16,000-person Marine Expeditionary Brigade camping out in Darwin would definitely give China pause.
“The Australian government should open discussions with the US to host a rotational presence of a Marine Expeditionary Brigade, potentially around 16,000 personnel, bringing with it significantly increased firepower and aviation assets,” the report says.
Translation: more Marines, more guns, and plenty of Ooh-rah.
For over a decade now, the US Marine Corps has kept its small rotational force at Darwin, strategically perched on Australia’s northern coast in the Northern Territory. From this prime spot, Marines enjoy direct access to Indonesia and a quick 1,400-mile hop to the southern Philippines—practically the Airbnb of military deployments.
While there’s plenty of open space in the Northern Territory for more boots and gear, the think tank warns that building up the necessary infrastructure would take some work. “We acknowledge that recent governments have started this process, but only stress that more needs to be done more quickly,” the report says.
In other words, time to put down the flat whites and start pouring concrete.
The report suggests that with a little hustle, the Marine expansion could begin as soon as next year and be fully operational by 2028.
In July, the Marines already flexed some muscle in Australia during Exercise Pitch Black and Exercise Predator’s Run.
Question for a future article: Why do Marine exercises sound like straight-to-DVD action movies?
Adding Marines in Australia would complement existing US forces in the region, including nearly 18,000 Marines on Okinawa and an expanding presence in Guam.
As part of the Corps’ broader Pacific strategy, they’ve established Marine Littoral Regiments (MLRs) like the 3rd MLR in Hawaii, with others on the way in Okinawa and Guam. These units come armed to the teeth with advanced sensing, air defense, and targeting tech—because nothing says “welcome to the neighborhood” like mobile radar systems and anti-ship missiles.
Speaking of radar, the Marines recently conducted a quick-reaction landing of one on Japan’s Yonaguni Island—just 70 miles from Taiwan—with help from their Japanese counterparts. That’s about as subtle as tossing a brick through China’s window.
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomed Australia’s foreign affairs and defense ministers, along with the deputy prime minister, to Annapolis, Maryland, in August.
After some polite nods to economic and climate change partnerships, the joint statement also contained a subtle nudge for Beijing.
While pledging to “maintain open lines of communication” with China, the statement reinforced the US commitment to “maintain the steady and long-term presence of Australian and US aircraft and vessels in the Indo-Pacific.”
No actual specifics on troop numbers were included in the statement, but one thing is clear: Australia’s beaches could soon see a lot more Marine buzz cuts.
Whether they’ll bring their surfboards for Dripstone Beach remains to be seen. Just watch out for the box jellyfish and saltwater crocs, mates.
Слава Україні!
I'll be honest, as an Australian, I am a big fan of our long-running alliance with our Yankee friends. No way would we ever want to be without them. I'd be quite happy to have the Marines crash on our collective couch. Would also be a great boost to our work in securing ongoing defense and support projects with our other pacific allies. Unity among us all is going to be vital.
Small nitpick though: it's spelled Crikey ;)
Great article, brother. BTW, I think I'm sharing the article about how Ukraine can win in next week's episode. Keep up the great work!