This One Map Reveals Russia’s Troop Shortage in Ukraine
Why is Russia building defensive fortifications in Kursk? Because they don't have the resources for a two-front war and they are prioritizing the Donbas.
Just a quick update today friends. I was looking at maps from the Institute for the Study of War and I saw some interesting Russian construction projects in Kursk.
Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region has snagged nearly 1,200 square kilometers.
The biggest thing this has forced upon Russia is a ‘two-front war’ whereby Moscow must decide where to allocate its limited manpower resources.
So, what’s the Kremlin doing about Ukraine’s Kursk incursion?
Well, instead of sending in a fresh wave of troops (spoiler: they don't have many left), they're building defensive lines – with conscripts.
These lines tell us something very important.
They tell us Russia does not have the capability of removing Ukrainians from Kursk – otherwise, why build semi-permanent fortifications some distance back?
Let’s break down Russia’s current construction crisis: what they’re doing, why they’re doing it, and whether it’ll work—or fall apart faster than their recruitment efforts.
The question on Putin’s mind: where to set up shop for this new defensive line? If you’ve been keeping tabs since August, you know Ukraine smashed through the previous lines near Kursk.
Turns out that in war, not enough boots on the ground means you lose the ground. Who would've thought?
Now Russia’s scrambling. Do they rebuild the defensive line nearby or retreat further back to play it safe?
The problem is, the further back you go, the more real estate you gift Ukraine.
So, what’s the right move? Do you stick close to the Ukrainian advance and risk another breach, or back off and play it safe?
This isn’t a quick weekend DIY project either. Building a new defensive line takes time and some degree of engineering talent. And with Ukrainian forces breathing down their necks, Russia can’t exactly go at a leisurely pace.
So, where’s Russia drawing this magic line in the sand?
Trenches are being dug at a safe distance from the Ukrainian advance—still in Kursk, but noticeably further back. Most of the new lines hug the E38 Highway, a logistical lifeline.
The maroon lines on this map show new Russian defensive fortifications.
They’re also super concerned about the nearby Kursk Nuclear Power Plant on the bank of the Seym River about 40 kilometers west of the city of Kursk.
Russia’s been busy adding extra defensive layers in Kursk, what we call “defense in depth.”
It’s basically a safety net so they can fall back to the next line and force Ukraine to make the same attack run over and over again.
Here’s a zoomed-in view of Russia’s fortification lines in Kursk.
But here’s the big question: Why is Russia building so far back when Ukraine hasn’t pushed as hard or as fast in Kursk as Moscow expected?
They're buying time because they don’t have enough troops.
To get the full picture, we’ve got to zoom out to Ukraine’s Eastern Front, where Russia’s actually been making offensive moves.
They’ve been pushing around Avdiivka, a thorn in their side going back to the Little Green Men invasion of the Donbas in 2014. By August, they made headway here, thanks to the fact that Ukraine shifted resources to Kursk.
With the pressure off in the east, Russia’s been hammering away, hoping to seize key towns like Pokrovsk, which would disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines.
If that happens, defending Kursk becomes a lot harder for Kyiv. Moscow knows it can't win everywhere, so it’s focusing on one front at a time.
It's the classic "we’re out of trained soldiers" trade-off: make gains in one area while hoping the other doesn’t fall apart.
The math isn’t on Russia’s side. Even with their gains in the Donbas, Ukraine has snagged more land overall in Kursk.
But, like everything in this war, it’s not just about the land grab. It’s about whether Russia can keep juggling a two-front war.
If their eastern offensive around Pokrovsk pays off, they might catch a breather in Kursk. But if Ukraine keeps grinding forward in Kursk, Russia’s going to find itself stretched thinner than a knockoff Russian bulletproof vest.
Winter’s coming, and with it, the window for big moves is going to close. Russia’s gamble in the east might buy them time, but if not, we could be looking at Kursk as a warzone well into 2025.
As always, the clock’s ticking. Russia’s trying to hit the snooze button, but Ukraine’s the one setting the alarms.
My best advice for Ukraine? Keep pushing hard in Kursk. The harder you make it there for Russia, the harder time they’ll have taking Pokrovsk in the West.
Слава Україні!
Russia is caught between a rock and a hard place now. Those new defensive fortifications appear to be focussed on preventing Ukraine from reaching the Kursk nuclear power plant, but does Ukraine really want or need to go there? The Russians can build as many trenches as they want, but they are worth SFA if they do not have the troops to man them.
Love your analysis. I don't know where you get such detailed info, but your thinking is spot on.